When Systems Break ⚙️💥
Bitcoin's Role in Modern Geopolitical Conflict
I hope you all had a good week so far. On this very hot Sunday I am going to touch on:
How Bitcoin behaves during geopolitical conflict;
Provide some updates on the AI investment education app that my partner and I are building;
Invite you to take part in a little experiment (you’ll have to read all the way down the page to see what it is 😜)
What happens to Bitcoin in times of conflict
I don’t usually like to talk about war and geopolitical conflicts, but I’ve been watching Bitcoin react to all the Israel-Iran tensions this month, and it's been interesting to observe a pattern emerging.
When things escalated on June 23rd, Bitcoin dropped about 4% in one day down to around $103,556. It was a classic move, people got scared and started selling anything that felt risky, and Bitcoin definitely still falls into that category for a lot of investors. But I've seen this pattern before with the Israel-Gaza conflict in 2023 and the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. Bitcoin always seems to get hit first when geopolitical stuff happens, then it recovers pretty quickly afterward.
There's basically two things happening at once. Some people panic and dump their Bitcoin holdings because they want to get out of anything risky. But other investors are starting to see Bitcoin more like digital gold and actually buy more when traditional systems look unstable.
What I'm noticing is that Bitcoin is getting caught up in the broader economic effects too. When oil prices spike because of Middle East tensions, it feeds into inflation concerns, and that makes Bitcoin look more attractive as a hedge. But at the same time, general market fear can still cause sell-offs. The pattern seems pretty consistent now. Bitcoin acts like a risk asset in the first few hours of a crisis when everyone's panicking, but then it transitions into more of a safe haven play once people have time to process what's happening. It's becoming this dual-purpose asset that serves different roles depending on the timeline and context.
When you look at how Bitcoin is used in time of geopolitical conflict, you start to finally understand why Satoshi’s Bitcoin whitepaper makes sense. Look at what's happening in places like Venezuela, Ukraine, or Lebanon. We see people turning to Bitcoin not because they're tech enthusiasts or trying to get rich quick, but because their traditional financial systems are literally falling apart around them. Your local currency is becoming worthless? Bitcoin becomes a lifeline. Need to send money to family but the banks are shut down or sanctions are blocking everything? Bitcoin doesn't care about borders or politics.
Have you noticed how Bitcoin is starting to show up in the same conversations as gold when things get scary geopolitically? It's still way more volatile than gold, obviously, but there's something appealing about an asset that can't be confiscated at a border and has a hard cap on supply. Governments took notice too, and whether they see it as a threat or an opportunity depends on which side of the conflict they're on.
In the past, when wars broke out or economies went sideways, people would rush to buy gold, silver, or land, practically anything physical that would hold its value when their country's money started falling apart. Governments would print cash like crazy to fund their wars, which usually led to massive inflation. Think about Germany after World War I. Their currency became worthless. Countries would also slam the borders shut financially, making it nearly impossible to get money out. After World War II, everyone agreed the US dollar was the safest bet, and that became the foundation of the global financial system.
These days, we're seeing some of the same patterns but with new twists. When conflicts erupt like the Russia-Ukraine war or tensions flare up in the Middle East, investors still flee to what they think are safe assets - US dollars, Swiss francs, gold. But now we've got this whole new dimension where money itself has become a weapon. People in unstable countries are increasingly using Bitcoin or dollar-backed stablecoins to protect their wealth and move money around without having to go through traditional banks that might get shut down or sanctioned. In recent years, we’ve seen people in Sudan and Ukraine turning to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies during their conflicts, using it to protect their savings, send money to family, buy basic necessities, and even help with evacuations.
It's wild to me how real-world crisis is proving out all those early Bitcoin use cases that seemed theoretical just a few years ago. The permissionless, borderless, uncensorable money thing isn't just a tagline anymore!
The real question isn't whether Bitcoin will replace traditional money, it's whether we're witnessing the end of an era where governments had complete control over how people store and move their wealth. For the first time in history, individuals have a financial option that exists outside any single country's reach. That's either the beginning of true financial freedom, or it's going to force governments to get a lot more creative about how they maintain control. Either way, we're not going back.
Updates
AI Investment Education App: the AI driven investment educational app is still going and we are continuing to work on it but it has more layers to consider so it will take some more time. Mostly we need to work more on creating multiple possible scenarios that a newbie or curious learner might encounter in a volatile market.
The experiment!
Last week, we quietly launched VedicQuant.com as a research experiment. We're exploring something fascinating: what happens when you combine ancient Vedic astrology with modern AI and quantitative analysis to understand cryptocurrency price movements?
This is very much an experiment, designed primarily for learning and education. Our main goal is simple: to observe whether this unconventional approach can improve prediction accuracy over time. We're tracking our win rates and success patterns as we go.
How Our Experiment Works
We're studying how cosmic patterns might influence market psychology. VedicQuant analyses moon phases, planetary alignments, and auspicious timing windows that Vedic tradition says affect human consciousness and decision making.
These astronomical observations get combined with AI-powered technical analysis using OpenAI's technology. Our system examines market trends, price movements, and trading volumes around the clock. The goal is to see if cosmic timing correlates with market behaviour in measurable ways.
We chose cryptocurrency markets for this experiment because they trade 24/7, which aligns perfectly with how Vedic planetary phases unfold continuously throughout each day and night cycle.
The Research Dashboard
Our Advanced Signals Dashboard is where we share what our AI agents are discovering. These systems run continuously on our servers, generating insights that we track and study together:
- Live signal notifications when patterns align
- Complete trade scenarios including entry points, targets, and risk management
- Cosmic context showing which astronomical events are active
- Visual data with charts, indicators, and pattern recognition tools
Who's Joining This Exploration?
We're seeing interest from two main groups: analytical traders curious about alternative market variables, and people with spiritual practices who want to see how ancient wisdom might apply to modern markets. Both perspectives add value to our research.
The real excitement comes from discovering connections between celestial rhythms and market cycles that we might not have noticed otherwise.
This experiment is in its early stages, and we're learning something new every day. If you're curious about unconventional market research, interested in how ancient knowledge systems might complement modern analysis, or simply enjoy being part of innovative explorations, we'd love to have you observe our progress.
Our goal is to observe and increase the success rate of the AI signal up to 75%. We will not manually interfere, but merely observe. You can see performance details on the Advanced signals page. Signals are being fed to the AI model, and over time it will learn more and more to predict confidence in the signals. It will eventually be able to measure accurately the probability of success.
Whether you're a skeptic, a believer, or just someone who appreciates unorthodox approaches to understanding complex systems, there's something here worth exploring.
After all, the most interesting discoveries often happen at the intersection of seemingly unrelated worlds.
A brief introduction to Vedic knowledge
The Vedic tradition is one of the world's oldest continuous spiritual and philosophical systems, originating in ancient India over 3,500 years ago with the composition of the Vedas - sacred texts that contain hymns, rituals, and profound insights into the nature of reality. At its core, Vedic knowledge encompasses a holistic understanding of the universe through interconnected sciences including astronomy, mathematics, medicine (Ayurveda), architecture, and consciousness studies, all unified by the principle that everything in existence follows cosmic patterns and rhythms.
The tradition teaches that these universal principles - from planetary cycles to human behaviour to market dynamics - are governed by the same underlying laws, and that by understanding these patterns, one can gain deeper insight into any field of study.
What makes Vedic knowledge particularly fascinating is its emphasis on cyclical time, mathematical precision, and the belief that ancient seers (rishis) had access to sophisticated methods of perceiving and codifying the fundamental structures that govern both material and subtle aspects of reality.